Cheaper Oil... Who Wins?

    | November 28, 2018


    Oil prices have dropped nearly 30% since June of this year and subject to the rules of a zero sum game there will be winners and losers. Over the short run, all oil-based energy consumers are winners and that includes me – I recently filled my gas tank at $3.10 per gallon! The consumer’s short-term win will be at the expense of oil producing countries and companies, but what will be the impact of a sustained lower oil prices?

    A look at the production numbers helps us to better understand the dynamic. The world produces 90 million barrels of oil every day, which five months ago was generating $3.5 trillion of annualized revenue. Today that same production generates $1 trillion less in annualized revenue, which means consumers will put most of that $1 trillion in their pockets – at least until they hop on Amazon and buy one of 200 million products.

    The U.S. occupies the unique position as the largest consumer, importer, and producer of oil. While our oil production has increased from $5.4 million barrels a day in 2010 to $8.2 billion barrels a day in 2014, we are still a net importer of oil. Accordingly, the US will continue to be a net winner when oil prices decline – at least until our energy production exceeds our consumption.

    David Post

    David has been a member of the Telemus team since 2014. As the Chief Investment Officer, David formulates investment strategy and constructs portfolio model allocations for approval by the Investment Committee. David also serves as Chair of the Investment Committee and is a member of all internal research groups. David is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley, and brings to Telemus more than 34 years of investment management experience serving as Founder, CEO and lead portfolio manager of investment firms serving both institutional and high net worth clients. David enjoys golf, skiing, and cycling, as well as architecture and contemporary art. He also loves to spend time with his wife, two children, and two grandchildren.

    David Post

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