Going into 2023, economists projected that the U.S. would enter a shallow recession in the back half of the year. This couldn’t have been more wrong, with the U.S. economy growing nearly 5% in the 3rd quarter alone. Going into 2024, the expectation is for more muted growth with some deceleration in the second half of the year.
Important Disclosures and Notices.
This report is provided for information purposes only. The information contained herein is pulled from various financial data sources which we believe to be reliable but not guaranteed. It is not intended as investment advice and does not address or account for individual investor circumstances. The statements contained herein are based solely upon the opinions of Kovitz Investment Group Partners, LLC (“Kovitz”) DBA Telemus Capital. Telemus Capital is a division of Kovitz, a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). All opinions and views constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investment decisions should always be made based on the client’s specific financial needs, goals and objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. Risks may include interest-rate risk, market risk, inflation risk, deflation risk, currency risk, reinvestment risk, business risk, liquidity risk, financial risk and cybersecurity risk. These risks are more fully described in Telemus Capital’s Firm Brochure (Part 2A of Form ADV), which is available upon request. Telemus Capital does not guarantee the results of any investments. Investment, insurance and annuity products are not FDIC insured, are not bank guaranteed, and may lose value.
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. The ISM Services Purchase Manager Index (PMI), otherwise known as the The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is an economic index based on surveys of more than 400 non-manufacturing (or services) firms' purchasing and supply executives. The ISM services survey is part of the ISM Report On Business—Manufacturing (PMI) and Services (PMI). The services report measures business activity for the overall economy; above 50 indicating growth, while below 50 indicating contraction. The ISM services report contains the economic activity of more than 15 industries, measuring employment, prices, and inventory levels. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the performance of US inflation (not seasonally adjusted) which is the rate of change of consumer goods prices. The data is from Bureau of Labor Statistics. The value of the current month CPI is estimated by the average value of the previous two months CPI. The Bloomberg Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass throughs), asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).
The Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate Aggregate Bond Index is a market index of high quality, domestic fixed income securities with maturities of less than 10 years. The Bloomberg Barclays US Intermediate Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers that have between 1 and up to, but not including, 10 years to maturity. The Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on the indices’ EM country definition, are excluded. The Bloomberg Barclays US Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index tracks fixed-rate agency mortgage backed passthrough securities guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). The index is constructed by grouping individual TBA-deliverable MBS pools into aggregates or generics based on program, coupon and vintage. The ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) measures US bond market yield volatility by tracking a basket of over-the-counter options on US Treasury notes and bonds. The basket is comprised of at-the-money one-month options on the current 2-year. 5-year. 10-year and 30-year Treasuries. The Index value is equal to the average of the implied normal yield volatility of the four options. where the 10-year option is given a 40% weight and the other basket components each hold a 20% share. The FTSE World Government Bond Index is a broad index providing exposure to the global sovereign fixed income market, the index measures the performance of fixed-rate, local currency, investment-grade sovereign bonds. It comprises sovereign debt from over 20 countries, denominated in a variety of currencies. The Bloomberg Barclay’s Municipal Bond Index covers the USD-denominated long-term tax exempt bond market. The index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds and pre-refunded bonds. Consumer Confidence index The Consumer Confidence Index is based on the Consumer Confidence Survey, which has a responding sample size of 3,000 questionnaires. There are five questions asked—two related to present economic conditions and three related to future expectations. The CCI is released on the last Tuesday of every month, and it is widely regarded as the most credible gauge of U.S. consumer confidence.
The S&P 500 index includes 500 leading companies in the US and is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap US equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a widely-watched benchmark index in the U.S. for blue-chip stocks; it is a price-weighted index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a large market-cap-weighted index of more than 2,500 stocks, American depositary receipts (ADRs), and real estate investment trusts (REITs), among others. The Russell 2000 index measures the performance of approximately 2,000 smallest-cap American companies in the Russell 3000 Index.
The Russell 1000 Growth Index is a composite that includes large and mid-cap companies located in the United States that exhibit a growth probability. The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 1000 Growth & Value Indices are subsets of the Russell 1000 Index. The MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large- and mid-cap representation across 21 Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. With 876 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float adjusted market capitalization in each country. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures over 1,300 large- and mid-cap securities across 27 Emerging Markets (EM) countries and five world regions. The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analyzing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is calculated on an excess return basis and reflects commodity futures price movements. The index rebalances annually weighted 2/3 by trading volume and 1/3 by world production and weight-caps are applied at the commodity, sector and group level for diversification. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) futures contract is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar and the world’s most widely-recognized traded currency index. The Alerian MLP Index is the leading gauge of energy infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs). The capped, float-adjusted, capitalization-weighted index, whose constituents earn the majority of their cash flow from midstream activities involving energy commodities, is disseminated real-time on a price-return basis (AMZ) and on a total-return basis (AMZX). The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold/Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index composed of companies involved in the gold or silver mining industry. The MSCI World Real Estate Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that consists of large and midcap equity across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. All securities in the index are classified in the Real Estate Sector according to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®).
Any reference to an index is included for illustrative purposes only, as an index is not a security in which an investment can be made. Indices are unmanaged vehicles that serve as market indicators and do not account for the deduction of management fees and/or transaction costs generally associated with investable products. It should not be assumed that portfolio holdings will correspond directly to the comparative index benchmark shown above. The holdings and performance of Telemus Capital client accounts may vary widely from those of the presented indices. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Telemus Capital and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Telemus Capital unless a client service agreement is in place. All composite data and corresponding calculations are available upon request.
