Monthly Commentary: November 2022
A slowdown in the rate of inflation led to lower yields on Treasury bonds causing a rally in asset prices. Those assets that have been positive on the year, namely crude oil and the dollar, were the rare exceptions that experienced a decline in price. Stocks have now sustained strong back-to-back months with the S&P 500 now down less than -15% on the year after having been fallen nearly -25% earlier in the quarter. As we exited the month, market movements were more influenced on expectations around the cadence of future Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Much of this debate was less around the ultimate ceiling for interest rates, but how much and when over the coming months. We view the current sentiment in the market to be overly short sighted in its focus. As we look ahead our considerations will concentrate more on the impacts that the sharp rise in interest has had across the economy and on the ultimate level that corporate earnings results need to readjust to.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
This market commentary is a matter of opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice and does not address or account for individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on the client’s specific financial needs, goals and objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance. The statements contained herein are based solely upon the opinions of Telemus Capital, LLC. All opinions and views constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. Information was obtained from third party sources, which we believe to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
The S&P 500 index includes 500 leading companies in the US and is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap US equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a widely-watched benchmark index in the U.S. for blue-chip stocks; it is a price-weighted index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a large market-cap-weighted index of more than 2,500 stocks, American depositary receipts (ADRs), and real estate investment trusts (REITs), among others. The Russell 2000 index measures the performance of approximately 2,000 smallest-cap American companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large- and mid-cap representation across 21 Developed Markets countries around the world, excluding the US and Canada. With 876 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float adjusted market capitalization in each country. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures over 1,300 large- and mid-cap securities across 27 Emerging Markets (EM) countries and five world regions. The MSCI World Real Estate Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that consists of large and midcap equity across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. All securities in the index are classified in the Real Estate Sector according to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®).
The FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) is a broad index providing exposure to the global sovereign fixed income market, it measures the performance of fixed-rate, local currency, investment-grade sovereign bonds. The WGBI is a widely used benchmark that currently includes sovereign debt from over 20 countries, denominated in a variety of currencies, and has more than 30 years of history available. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index Is a market-value-weighted index for the long-term tax-exempt bond market. To be included in the index, bonds must have a minimum credit rating of Baa. They must have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The bonds must be fixed rate, have a dated-date after December 31, 1990 and must be at least one year from their maturity date. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is calculated on an excess return basis and reflects commodity futures price movements. The index rebalances annually weighted 2/3 by trading volume and 1/3 by world production and weight-caps are applied at the commodity, sector and group level for diversification. The Bloomberg Intermediate US Government/Credit Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the non-securitized component of the US Aggregate Index with less than 10 years to maturity. The index includes investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate treasuries, government-related and corporate securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US Intermediate Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility and financial issuers that have between 1 and up to, but not including, 10 years to maturity. The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the USD-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. The Bloomberg US Treasury Inflation-Linked Bond Index (TIPS Index) (Series-L) (“TIPS Index”) measures the performance of the US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market. Federal Reserve holdings of US TIPS are not index eligible and are excluded from the face amount outstanding of each bond in the index. The Russell 1000 Growth Index is a composite that includes large and mid-cap companies located in the United States that exhibit a growth probability. The Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of the large cap value segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 1000 Growth & Value Indices are subsets of the Russell 1000 Index. The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX® ) is considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of equity market volatility. The VIX Index is based on real-time prices of options on the S&P 500® Index (SPX) and is designed to reflect investors' consensus view of future (30-day) expected stock market volatility. The VIX Index is often referred to as the market's "fear gauge".
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold/Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index composed of companies involved in the gold or silver mining industry. The Alerian MLP Index is the leading gauge of energy infrastructure Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs). The capped, float-adjusted, capitalization-weighted index, whose constituents earn the majority of their cash flow from midstream activities involving energy commodities, is disseminated real-time on a price-return basis (AMZ) and on a total-return basis (AMZX). The HFRX Equal Weighted Strategies Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. It is comprised of all eligible hedge fund strategies; including but not limited to convertible arbitrage, equity hedge, equity market neutral, event driven, macro, merger arbitrage, and relative value arbitrage. The HFRX Equal Weighted Strategies Index applies an equal weight to all constituent strategy indices.
Any reference to an index is included for illustrative purposes only, as an index is not a security in which an investment can be made. Indices are unmanaged vehicles that serve as market indicators and do not account for the deduction of management fees and/or transaction costs generally associated with investable products. The holdings and performance of Telemus client accounts may vary widely from those of the presented indices. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Telemus and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. No advice may be rendered by Telemus unless a client service agreement is in place. All composite data and corresponding calculations are available upon request.
Matt joined the Telemus team in 2018. As Chief Investment Officer, he leads the firms the investment process and research effort. Matt has experience as an equity analyst and portfolio manager and has advised corporate pension plans on their manager selection. He’s been quoted in Money Magazine and Barron’s.