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February 18 – February 22 Week in Review

The markets extended their winning streak to nine consecutive weeks in holiday shortened trading last week. The S&P 500 increased 0.62%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.57%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.74%, and the Russell 2000 rose 1.33%.  The good news for the markets last week featured the seventh round of U.S.-China trade negotiations and some reassuring talk from the Federal Reserve on interest rates.

The S&P 500 utilities, materials, and information technology sectors outperformed the broader market. On the opposite end, the energy, and health care sectors were the lone groups that finished with losses last week.

Investors received several updates from U.S-China trade talks in Washington. The two sides made an agreement on currency, however no specifics were provided, and China reportedly committed to purchase $1.2 trillion in U.S. goods. Also President Trump said he will most likely in March work out the final points on trade with China's President Xi.

On the interest rate front the Federal Open Market Committee released its minutes from the January meeting on Wednesday last week, which came in mostly in line with expectations. The main takeaway from the FOMC Minutes was that the Fed is going to be patient in raising interest rates and is likely to stop reducing the assets on its balance sheet later this year.

With the Fed maintaining its market friendly position and U.S.-China trade talks seemingly progressing, or at least not getting worse, investors continued to shake off any disappointing economic data. Strong earnings results from Wal-Mart helped allay concerns about any slowdown in consumer spending that were fueled by the lousy retail sales report for December.

Kraft Heinz and CVS Health, however, provided investors with disappointing results last week and their stocks sank as a result. In the case of Kraft Heinz, a large holding of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, it fell over 27% on Friday after announcing a slew of bad news late on Thursday.

U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly last week in a curve steepening trade. The 2 year yield decreased four basis points to 2.48%, and the 10 year yield decreased one basis point to 2.66%.

In other markets the U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.4% to 96.55. WTI crude rose 3.0% to $57.25 a barrel on a decline in U.S. drilling activity and the hope for a trade deal. WTI crude is now up over 20% from the start of the year, showing the stock market isn’t the only thing rallying in 2019.

February 25 – March 1 Economic Calendar

  • Monday
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index
    8:30 AM ET
  • Wholesale Trade
    10:00 AM ET
  • Dallas Fed Mfg
    10:30 AM ET
  • Tuesday
  • Housing Starts
    8:30 PM ET
  • Redbook
    8:55 AM ET
  • S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
    8:50 PM ET
  • FHFA House Price Index
    9:00 AM ET
  • Consumer Confidence
    10:00 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks
    10:00 AM ET
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • Wednesday
  • MBA Mortgage Applications
    7:00 AM ET
  • International Trade in Goods
    8:30 AM ET
  • Factory Orders
    8:30 AM ET
  • Retail Inventories [Advance]
    8:30 AM ET
  • Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
    8:30 AM ET
  • Jerome Powell Speaks
    10:00 AM ET
  • Pending Home Sales index
    10:00 AM ET
  • State Street Investor Confidence Index
    10:00 AM ET
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • Thursday
  • Richard Clarida Speaks
    8:00 AM ET
  • GDP
    8:30 AM ET
  • Jobless Claims
    8:30 AM ET
  • Raphael Bostic Speaks
    8:50 AM ET
  • Chicago PMI
    9:45 AM ET
  • EIA Natural Gas Report
    10:30 AM ET
  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
    11:00 AM ET
  • Patrick Harker Speaks
    12:15 PM ET
  • Rob Kaplan
    1:00 PM ET
  • Farm Prices
    3:00 PM ET
  • Fed Balance Sheet
    4:30 PM ET
  • Money Supply
    4:30 PM ET
    • Friday
    • Personal Income and Outlays
      8:30 AM ET

       

       

    • PMI Manufacturing Index
      9:45 PM ET
    • ISM Mfg Index
      10:00 AM ET
    • Consumer Sentiment
      10:00 AM ET
    • Raphael Bostic Speaks
      12:50 PM ET
    • Baker-Hughes Rig Count
      1:00 PM ET

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT A GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This commentary is a matter of opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice and does not address or account for individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on the client's specific financial needs, goals and objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance. The statements contained herein are based solely upon the opinions of Telemus Capital, LLC. All opinions and views constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. Information was obtained from third party sources, which we believe to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

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